Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-01 00:00:00+00:00 12.584305 14.675735 16.956094 19.620429 22.640986 25.951925 29.848494
2024-12-08 00:00:00+00:00 8.882847 11.621198 14.904189 19.099508 24.284388 30.446152 38.283235
2024-12-15 00:00:00+00:00 6.827929 9.872238 13.831132 19.283381 26.512667 35.675275 48.056757
2024-12-22 00:00:00+00:00 5.285343 8.366846 12.676099 19.012476 27.935944 39.874738 56.836083
2024-12-29 00:00:00+00:00 4.523316 7.740892 12.526743 19.958669 30.954542 46.322061 69.041433
2025-01-05 00:00:00+00:00 3.807071 7.013661 12.066422 20.316939 33.082396 51.632775 80.040200
2025-01-12 00:00:00+00:00 3.187347 6.302648 11.487921 20.361923 34.670280 56.215003 90.271800
2025-01-19 00:00:00+00:00 2.696325 5.704527 10.977404 20.404773 36.192936 60.746596 100.685449
2025-01-26 00:00:00+00:00 2.521922 5.641710 11.346424 21.912499 40.151711 69.251490 117.658917
2025-02-02 00:00:00+00:00 2.293198 5.427354 11.406106 22.873629 43.265191 76.617138 133.312591
2025-02-09 00:00:00+00:00 2.084423 5.210705 11.422421 23.740008 46.264970 83.972614 149.376048
2025-02-16 00:00:00+00:00 1.793562 4.760807 10.923276 23.588090 47.448324 88.383587 160.900841
2025-02-23 00:00:00+00:00 1.465545 4.167853 10.069793 22.696542 47.286389 90.630507 169.211693
2025-03-02 00:00:00+00:00 1.206847 3.678415 9.353177 21.982056 47.379567 93.327757 178.490579
2025-03-09 00:00:00+00:00 1.054112 3.417081 9.086411 22.143035 49.137414 99.071849 193.373562
2025-03-16 00:00:00+00:00 0.892937 3.092310 8.621117 21.820122 49.904821 103.060308 205.392023
2025-03-23 00:00:00+00:00 0.834166 3.039766 8.785245 22.879257 53.521543 112.515577 227.714557
2025-03-30 00:00:00+00:00 0.747160 2.881714 8.665074 23.279948 55.806741 119.592500 246.066503
2025-04-06 00:00:00+00:00 0.654906 2.682571 8.407767 23.329583 57.350412 125.336684 262.256850
2025-04-13 00:00:00+00:00 0.574939 2.500680 8.164113 23.377429 58.883732 131.140244 278.851587
2025-04-20 00:00:00+00:00 0.565590 2.559174 8.580089 25.073038 64.149550 144.602445 310.644352
2025-04-27 00:00:00+00:00 0.533507 2.528391 8.742391 26.153030 68.123108 155.691440 338.393100
2025-05-04 00:00:00+00:00 0.500033 2.483738 8.858191 27.125990 71.925098 166.634767 366.363797